That’s… actually really incredible and I love it. I feel like it’s a little wasted this far down in a comment chain, you should post it somewhere on the Fediverse!
I think I would swap Portugal and South Korea.
South Korean opposition unity fell apart during the presidential election (which luckily didn’t screw them), but getting a bunch of otherwise ideologically unrelated parties to present consistent pressure on a military regime, and have the people turn out in huge numbers to support it, is a pretty good showing for opposition unity; and the military regime of SK showed weakness at a bad time (or a good one for those of us who prefer democracy; bad for them), whereas the Portuguese Estado Novo simply failed to react to gradually changing public opinion.
I think I’d also slightly lower India’s opposition unity, in relation to USA (FDR), and increase the fascist self-sabotage of USA (FDR).
The Dems during FDR’s administration showed significant backbone and party discipline (at least compared to what we normally see in the States, since we don’t have a parliamentary system), and managed to get crossover support in some cases even from their own opposition, which itself never strongly aligned with the fascists (being terrified that fascism might be bad for business); while in India, the opposition parties united in message (“Dictatorship or democracy”), but all ran effectively separate campaigns. At least to my understanding, the history of India, modern or otherwise, is certainly not my strong point.
The fascist self-sabotage in the USA I’d increase because of the consistent failure of the fascists to organize in a coherent way. By the time they hit on “America First” (😬) as a good screen to pull in some useful dupes, they’d already long-lost their window of opportunity, and never even managed an independent presence in the legislature, at a time when even socialists managed a small presence in Congress. They also never had their necessary central figure or long-lasting party organization to make good their agitation, though if the Dem response had been less competent, God only knows what could have developed.
Also, arguably, depending on how one interprets the Business Plot, they literally tried to approach a fucking socialist disillusioned veteran to head a pro-business fascist regime, lmao. General Smedley Butler immediately sold the plotters out, because while he hated what the USA had done and was doing, that didn’t mean he wanted it to get worse. That’s some hefty self-sabotage on the fascists’ part.
I definitely agree with Japan’s opposition unity being at the very bottom. PM Osachi’s party would flip entirely after his assassination and support the military regime, even though the military hadn’t significantly increased its power in the wake of Osachi’s death.
It seems, like successful resistance to fascism has less to do with how effective and organized the fascists are, and more to do with how unified the resistance to fascism is.
I think that’s a fair assessment. Once the fascists reach a certain level of influence, they’re like a blunt weapon - finesse helps, but even flailing around aimlessly can ‘get the job done’.
Where would you rank the US, currently on this scale?
Oh, Lord. Fuck, where would I put us?
Realistically speaking, our fascists are, astoundingly, even less competent than the Austrofascists, who could at least cobble together a cunning legal argument and use a crisis to its full potential. But I would like to think even as fucked as our opposition is, that we are in a better position than “Shrug and go home when the government is couped”.
If I was trying to be hopeful, I suppose I’d say 2, 9. The current party is cartoonishly incompetent, even by the low standards of fascists, while as bad as the Dems are, I feel like we’re only dealing with the Moderate-SocDem divide, rather than the Moderate-SocDem-Communist three-way chaos that Weimar Germany had - Dems still broadly feel they’re on the same side, even if political junkies like us tense and give each other nervous glances.
If I was trying to prepare for shit to hit the fan, I’d say 3, 10. The problem is that institutions take time to degrade, which means all the incompetence in the world won’t immediately piss away the very refined bureaucracy of the Federal government, which then is a tool in the hands of the fascists. And if we lack the three-way fight in the Dem Party, our ‘Zentrum’ is more influential, and like Zentrum, may prefer self-extermination to compromise with the progressive wing of the party.
I don’t think anything could justify putting current US opposition above 8 (at 8 only if you feel very optimistic) or fascist self-sabotage above 4. We’re on the fucking knife’s edge.
… I know I said this already, but I really love that entire chart/idea. Seeing it has really brightened my night, it’s fantastic
That’s… actually really incredible and I love it. I feel like it’s a little wasted this far down in a comment chain, you should post it somewhere on the Fediverse!
I think I would swap Portugal and South Korea.
South Korean opposition unity fell apart during the presidential election (which luckily didn’t screw them), but getting a bunch of otherwise ideologically unrelated parties to present consistent pressure on a military regime, and have the people turn out in huge numbers to support it, is a pretty good showing for opposition unity; and the military regime of SK showed weakness at a bad time (or a good one for those of us who prefer democracy; bad for them), whereas the Portuguese Estado Novo simply failed to react to gradually changing public opinion.
I think I’d also slightly lower India’s opposition unity, in relation to USA (FDR), and increase the fascist self-sabotage of USA (FDR).
The Dems during FDR’s administration showed significant backbone and party discipline (at least compared to what we normally see in the States, since we don’t have a parliamentary system), and managed to get crossover support in some cases even from their own opposition, which itself never strongly aligned with the fascists (being terrified that fascism might be bad for business); while in India, the opposition parties united in message (“Dictatorship or democracy”), but all ran effectively separate campaigns. At least to my understanding, the history of India, modern or otherwise, is certainly not my strong point.
The fascist self-sabotage in the USA I’d increase because of the consistent failure of the fascists to organize in a coherent way. By the time they hit on “America First” (😬) as a good screen to pull in some useful dupes, they’d already long-lost their window of opportunity, and never even managed an independent presence in the legislature, at a time when even socialists managed a small presence in Congress. They also never had their necessary central figure or long-lasting party organization to make good their agitation, though if the Dem response had been less competent, God only knows what could have developed.
Also, arguably, depending on how one interprets the Business Plot, they literally tried to approach a fucking socialist disillusioned veteran to head a pro-business fascist regime, lmao. General Smedley Butler immediately sold the plotters out, because while he hated what the USA had done and was doing, that didn’t mean he wanted it to get worse. That’s some hefty self-sabotage on the fascists’ part.
I definitely agree with Japan’s opposition unity being at the very bottom. PM Osachi’s party would flip entirely after his assassination and support the military regime, even though the military hadn’t significantly increased its power in the wake of Osachi’s death.
I think that’s a fair assessment. Once the fascists reach a certain level of influence, they’re like a blunt weapon - finesse helps, but even flailing around aimlessly can ‘get the job done’.
Oh, Lord. Fuck, where would I put us?
Realistically speaking, our fascists are, astoundingly, even less competent than the Austrofascists, who could at least cobble together a cunning legal argument and use a crisis to its full potential. But I would like to think even as fucked as our opposition is, that we are in a better position than “Shrug and go home when the government is couped”.
If I was trying to be hopeful, I suppose I’d say 2, 9. The current party is cartoonishly incompetent, even by the low standards of fascists, while as bad as the Dems are, I feel like we’re only dealing with the Moderate-SocDem divide, rather than the Moderate-SocDem-Communist three-way chaos that Weimar Germany had - Dems still broadly feel they’re on the same side, even if political junkies like us tense and give each other nervous glances.
If I was trying to prepare for shit to hit the fan, I’d say 3, 10. The problem is that institutions take time to degrade, which means all the incompetence in the world won’t immediately piss away the very refined bureaucracy of the Federal government, which then is a tool in the hands of the fascists. And if we lack the three-way fight in the Dem Party, our ‘Zentrum’ is more influential, and like Zentrum, may prefer self-extermination to compromise with the progressive wing of the party.
I don’t think anything could justify putting current US opposition above 8 (at 8 only if you feel very optimistic) or fascist self-sabotage above 4. We’re on the fucking knife’s edge.
… I know I said this already, but I really love that entire chart/idea. Seeing it has really brightened my night, it’s fantastic