It seems like in just a few weeks, the theatre has expanded to cover a more broad area, and it could quicky spiral out of control. Polymarket has a 14% chance odds of a clash by the end of this calendar year alone. Is there going to be end up being a drone war that will be fought out there that would include much of Europe? Should people with plans to visit Europe this winter cancel? 14% chance of the airport getting shut down, seems quite high, and I’d think Polymarket is too low with the odds.
I’m posting here since I’ve already blocked every single community that’s just a news feed, and I can’t find any community specific to geopolitical discussions without the spam of news feeds.
It’s difficult to determine the true state of things in Ukraine because both sides have interest in propagandizing to the west. But the way they are fighting tells me that to varying degrees, both sides are quite worn down and unable to commit any significant number of troops to one area. Skirmishes seem to involve less than a dozen people on any one side, frequently unsupported by heavy weapons.
With this in mind, I have no idea why Russia would want to open the conflict even wider. They’re using fucking donkeys to ferry supplies to the front. But who knows what Russia is thinking. Maybe they want an excuse to begin full mobilization of the population. Maybe they’re building up reserves that I’m unaware of. Maybe they think they can get away with slinging some drones at the NATO pig-dogs and taking some back in return.
I’m talking about the airport closures in Denmark, Poland, and Estonia due to unaccounted for drones in the airspace. Those have been the source of tension in the region.
The front line in Ukraine has had manpower issues, so it does not need to be “boots on the ground” to be a source of extra tension to spark a wider broader conflict. My fear is that it could spiral in a broader drone war involving Poland, Estonia, Denmark, etc. As it is drones that can inflict the most amount of damage and chaos, without the meat grinder and manpower issues plauging the front line. The fear is great enough that it’s a cause for concern that I can no longer be assured that European airports will be operational for tourists if Polymarket has a 1 in 7 chance of the airports shuttering for another drone incident by the end of 2025.
