• brachiosaurus@mander.xyz
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    1 month ago

    Lol, how so?

    To dissolve a party you need to first start by creating a schism within the party itself.

    It’s like arguing that to walk on the bottom surface of the earth you need magnetic boots, it only works if you assume that earth is flat and magnetic. You are making an argument on top of duverger’s law taking it for granted as a mathematical law, you are not supposed to do that.

    I mean it uses previous elections as evidence to support a theory based on a logical deduction. Your claim is like saying the laws around gravity are only based on previous observations of how gravity functions. That every step you take “changes the data”.

    Each election is different from another and has different parties running which means that each time the variables are different and unpredictable (you cannot mathematically predict what people will vote for in 5 years and which parties will run)

    “Thomas R. Palfrey argued Duverger’s law can be proven mathematically at the limit when the number of voters approaches infinity for one single-winner district and where the probability distribution of votes is known, rational strategic voting forces a single-winner plurality system to collapse into a two-party competition.”

    I argue that unless you can read the future you cannot prove mathematically what people are going to vote for.

    • TranscendentalEmpire@lemmy.today
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      1 month ago

      Each election is different from another and has different parties running which means that each time the variables are different

      The variables that matter are a constant… It doesn’t matter what parties run so long as the system in which they run is the same.

      I argue that unless you can read the future you cannot prove mathematically what people are going to vote for.

      This does not attempt to vision what party will win, just that one of the main two parties in a two party system will win.

      • brachiosaurus@mander.xyz
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        1 month ago

        The variables that matter are a constant… It doesn’t matter what parties run so long as the system in which they run is the same.

        A person vote is a constant only if you assume that people will always vote in a certain way like voting for the party that has more chances of winning rather than voting for the party they identify with. That’s an assumption that generalize how people vote.

        just that one of the main two parties in a two party system will win.

        There are more than two parties or we wouldn’t be talking about third parties.

        • TranscendentalEmpire@lemmy.today
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          1 month ago

          person vote is a constant only if you assume that people will always vote in a certain way like voting for the party that has more chances of winning rather than voting for the party they identify with. That’s an assumption that generalize how people vote.

          The constants I was talking about were the first past the post style over elections and single member districts.

          There are more than two parties or we wouldn’t be talking about third parties.

          “two-party system is a political setup where two major parties win nearly all elections and hold almost all power in government.”