My pet theory about why Anthropic and Open AI are pushing for a “pause” is because they are trying to angle for a government bailout before their bubbles pop.
My pet theory about why Anthropic and Open AI are pushing for a “pause” is because they are trying to angle for a government bailout before their bubbles pop.
I very openly believe and evangelize that OpenAI prepping to go public is what triggered the wave of calls to pause R&D. They are in a hole so big that they’ll take a 1/3rd of the economy with them when they go belly up. The other big tech firms are probably all in the same boat. However, none of them can afford the public perception of being the first to flinch and cut back on AI research. So, they are angling for the government to step in and force everyone to cut their R&D budget all at the same time, so no one has to save face.
NVIDIA will be fine and is most of that once all the circular BS dissolves, in a gold rush, sell shovels.
Didn’t they sell those shovels on credit though?
Oh yeah, but don’t worry, they also provided some of that credit…
I seriously was going to sell my Nvidia stock thinking the signs are here, but when I thought about it… They might drop a bit but they’ll recover strong probably. They were a profitable business before this.
(This is not investment advice just one Rando’s opinion on the Internet). Nvidia will not go bankrupt after this, but their current (IMO, inflated) valuation is based on the assumption that their sales will continue to grow at current rates.
If the demand drops out and the market is flooded with surplus stock, their sales will not maintain current levels, which will spook investors. They should have more than enough cash on hand to weather a pretty big storm, and likely maintain their market lead but their stock price is not immune to the bubble burst.
Literally what I was worried about, that our corrupt as fuck US government would rather double down on the scam and start partaking rather than let the bubble burst.
They literally are going to fund the scam with tax payer dollars rather than just let the bubble do what bubbles do. Too big to fail bullshit.
It’s the dot com era, except 100x as corrupt environment where they can rob the tax payer rather than close shop. We are so royally fucked.
I don’t know about the U.S. government doing a bailout this time. I know that keeps getting repeated, but in the past they’ve only bailed out things people supposedly need, or don’t actively hate. Neither of those things are true with “AI.”
I’m sure they want to on behalf of their donors, but they also know America is a powder keg right now.