Democratic strategists are celebrating the outcome of an Iowa State Legislature race, hoping that it is a sign of things to come in the 2026 midterms and some key gubernatorial elections this year in Virginia and New Jersey.In a special election for an Iowa State Senate seat held on Tuesday, August ...
gerrymandering intensifies
It’s a double edged sword during a wave election. Gerrymandering is predicated on putting a plurality of Your Team reps in seats with single digit margins and Their Team reps in seats with oversized 80/20 margins.
If Your Team drops by ten points in the polls, suddenly all your “Safe” seats aren’t. Look at what happened in Alabama during the 2018 Senate Race.
The catch is that the incoming majority then has an opportunity to rewrite the districts in their own favor - break up the consolidated 80/20 seats and spread those voters around. If they don’t do that (as Dems failed to do in '07/'09 or '18/'20) then normal election seasons favor Republicans and you get a '10/'14/'22 reversion to the mean.