It’s bizarre because the scales have really tipped.
3 years ago, China wanted to directly interfere with Canada for the purpose of stacking the government to be more “Pro-China”, and that’s an active threat for sure. The USA just wanted favorable trade conditions and general support on the world stage.
Fast forward to now, the USA is actively trying to destabilize and divide Canada. They want a weaker nation. Seed dissert. Makes the country easier to push around. China… still obviously wants Canada to be more “Pro-China”, but for Canada to be what they want… they still want a strong Canada. A strong Canada could be a vocal counterbalance. One in disarray can not.
So, while it’s true that both countries are actively threatening Canada, their idealized vision for a Canada that can be exploited are basically polar opposites. A strong Canada willing to break ranks w/ the USA, vs a fractured weakened country thar can’t afford to.
China does not want a strong Canada. A strong Canada might speak out about Taiwan and demand change before making trade deals. A strong Canada will look for more ethical but expensive trade partners in Europe.
The US wants Canada directly for resources, China wants a scared Canada who is willing to take any deal just to get some stability.
I agree with the ultimate goal (getting Canadian support, or at the very least Canadian silence).
I disagree about how it could possibly achieve those ends.
A weak Canada becomes little more than a US puppet. Full stop. Based on proximity, relative cultural similarities, and trade dependence, that’s the inevitable result. Nothing China could ever do could alter that outcome. A weakened Canada folds into the US in global matters. If that happens, China has lost before the game even begins.
It’s a strict prerequisite that Canada be able to absorb the reprocussions of breaking ranks with the USA if you want Canada to break ranks with the USA. A stable, economically diversified Canada CAN. Otherwise it CAN’T.
So “can they” is the first hurdle for China. The second is “will they”. That’s where this is all playing out. Over the last… I dunno, 4 years, they’ve been working on the “will they” by getting cozy with politicians.
Right now, they’re at significant risk of backsliding from a “will they” situation back to a “can they” situation.
The USA has a much shorter path. They don’t have to compete for “will they (side with USA)” if they can merely make it so that “can they (break ranks)” becomes unfeasible based on economic and political turmoil.
I’d add that our opinions, like mine, have been heavily influenced by pro-US and anti-China propaganda by American and pro-American actors for a long time. I only started noticing it over the last couple of years. Now it’s obvious as day. Not saying there’s nothing to worry about. Just musing on our collective opinion towards China.
Europe, Japan, Korea. They have their own problems too but it’s the USA and China that are actively threatening Canada.
It’s bizarre because the scales have really tipped.
3 years ago, China wanted to directly interfere with Canada for the purpose of stacking the government to be more “Pro-China”, and that’s an active threat for sure. The USA just wanted favorable trade conditions and general support on the world stage.
Fast forward to now, the USA is actively trying to destabilize and divide Canada. They want a weaker nation. Seed dissert. Makes the country easier to push around. China… still obviously wants Canada to be more “Pro-China”, but for Canada to be what they want… they still want a strong Canada. A strong Canada could be a vocal counterbalance. One in disarray can not.
So, while it’s true that both countries are actively threatening Canada, their idealized vision for a Canada that can be exploited are basically polar opposites. A strong Canada willing to break ranks w/ the USA, vs a fractured weakened country thar can’t afford to.
China does not want a strong Canada. A strong Canada might speak out about Taiwan and demand change before making trade deals. A strong Canada will look for more ethical but expensive trade partners in Europe.
The US wants Canada directly for resources, China wants a scared Canada who is willing to take any deal just to get some stability.
I agree with the ultimate goal (getting Canadian support, or at the very least Canadian silence).
I disagree about how it could possibly achieve those ends.
A weak Canada becomes little more than a US puppet. Full stop. Based on proximity, relative cultural similarities, and trade dependence, that’s the inevitable result. Nothing China could ever do could alter that outcome. A weakened Canada folds into the US in global matters. If that happens, China has lost before the game even begins.
It’s a strict prerequisite that Canada be able to absorb the reprocussions of breaking ranks with the USA if you want Canada to break ranks with the USA. A stable, economically diversified Canada CAN. Otherwise it CAN’T.
So “can they” is the first hurdle for China. The second is “will they”. That’s where this is all playing out. Over the last… I dunno, 4 years, they’ve been working on the “will they” by getting cozy with politicians.
Right now, they’re at significant risk of backsliding from a “will they” situation back to a “can they” situation.
The USA has a much shorter path. They don’t have to compete for “will they (side with USA)” if they can merely make it so that “can they (break ranks)” becomes unfeasible based on economic and political turmoil.
Insightful.
I’d add that our opinions, like mine, have been heavily influenced by pro-US and anti-China propaganda by American and pro-American actors for a long time. I only started noticing it over the last couple of years. Now it’s obvious as day. Not saying there’s nothing to worry about. Just musing on our collective opinion towards China.