Ok.

Love your optimism about rich nations not disintegrating. The way I see climate change happening, there’s soon major changes in weather/ rainfall. Also some ecological collapse (eg bees, other pollinators, ocean acidification), with knock on effects to agriculture. Even problems in other parts of the world create pressure for resources, wars, increased migration… Too much to detail, but many things that come to a breaking point in the next decades.

I’d love to hear why you think this seems unlikely. Look at the end of the roman empire. Or any empire. Things don’t stay the same just because.