There are plenty of reasons to believe that Democrats are headed toward a blue wave. Democrats are turning out in record numbers in primary contests even in “safe” races. They continue to over-perform in special elections, even flipping the state legislative seat that includes Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate.
Added to that, the war in Iran is already causing Trump to crater with groups of voters that had boosted him to reelection such as Latino voters. And most major pollsters show that voters would overwhelmingly vote for a generic Democrat for Congress compared to a generic Republican.
But one of the biggest indicators of an impending Democratic win come November is the number of Republicans in the House of Representatives not running for reelection.
The UK also has a FPTP voting system, and currently the 5th biggest party (Reform) is leading the polls, and the 8th biggest party (Greens) is 2nd: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2026
If people start voting for non-genocidal parties, you could get a decent government - maybe not this election, but possibly the next. If you keep voting for evil, even the lesser evil, everything just keeps getting more and more evil after every election.
Yeah, and our system is nothing to be remotely proud of. It’s a fucking miracle that Reform and the Greens even have a look-in, and is entirely indicative of the two main parties completely shitting the bed. It’ll be interesting to see what happens when there’s a general election.