Anthropic, which officially filed to go public at a rumored valuation of up to $2 trillion dollars just a week before the elections.
As Bloomberg reports, those prospects are in free fall as the chaos takes hold. Some investors are now weighing bids that would value Anthropic as low as $1.1 trillion. While that’s still a huge valuation for a company that lost over $80 billion in the first half of 2026 alone, it’s a massive drop compared to the previously unbridled enthusiasm surrounding the firm’s IPO.
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Have they tried the classical method of adding up what they actually own and what they owe to others, and then factor in what they have earned in the last ten years? That would give a clear and fair evaluation of the company for an IPO.
That’s not how any IPO works.
On Thursday, a massive sell off wiped out a record $2.3 trillion in market value, highlighting major volatility and uncertainty.
Oh no, they lost a bunch of pretend speculation value that wasn’t based on reality!
Fuck the stock market.
You’re going to find out just how real stock market money is when the AI bubble implodes.
Buffett Index: total stock valuation vs. GDP
1929: 130%
2007: 130%
2025: 220%
Oh no, they lost a bunch of pretend speculation value that wasn’t based on reality!
The problem is that the pretended value will likely be paid from people’s pensions savings.
People whose pension savings were based on pretend speculation value will have less pretend speculation value.
There’s only one appropriate response.
:)
I love how you can go to IPO showing financial proof that your business is utter unsustainable and even if that changes would take considerable time to dig out of…
Anthropic is worth ~$150billion.
That’s how much they hold in tangible assets.
Minus debt…
Classical method: what do they own, what do they owe, and how much did they earn in the last ten years. Then you have a realistic base number for an IPO.
So negative 50 billion overall then.
I think it’s negative 80 billion, lmao
I know they paid a lot for it but I wonder how much of that infrastructure is really worth if no one wants to buy it
My son is already drooling at the prospect of getting his hands on some of their RAM.
Hate to break it to you (or your son), but the kind pf RAM theyve got in that datacenter is not compatible with your son’s computer.
It’s essentially worthless for any purpose other than the type of GPUs they put in a LLM data center. That’s part of why their business is so dumb.
The reason RAM prices have skyrocketed is because the limited number of RAM fabrication facilities have mostly converted their setup to produce the type of RAM that only works for slop instead of the consumer grade stuff.
So your son and I are both gonna need to wait for those RAM fabrication facilities to realize that the people ordering years worth of their work don’t actually have the money to pay for their order. At that point they will likely convert the fabrication facilities back to normal RAM production, and a couple of years after thar happens RAM prices will begin to approach sensible levels again.
I am very excited to buy some of the large HDDs currently being hoarded by the slop mongers when they soon eat shit tho… I’ma build me a fat RAID.
Also, the system designs in general expect more power than a residential circuit can provide, some more than an EVSE circuit. So folks imagining buying a system that does have the memory are also going to be disappointed.
The storage is the most likely to come over, with the caveat of some awkward EDSSF form factor, but enclosures I could see becoming available with a big enough opportunity. E1.L might be the trickiest, but those aren’t too popular in the datacenters either.
$3.50, final offer. You could bribe me with a good sandwich though too i suppose.
But it has to be like a reeeeaaally good sandwich
It is the BROODWICH.
Sandwich-heavy portfolio made the hungry investor happy.
Ooh, it must’ve been about seven, eight years ago. Me and the little lady was out on this boat, you see, all alone at night, when all of a sudden this huge creature, this giant crustacean from the paleolithic era, comes out of the water and I yelled. I said, “What do you want from us, monster?!” And the monster bent down and said, “…Uh I need about tree-fitty.”
they do own some gpu’s. I bet you could hack one to run a server for somethingm
You give them a dollar they’re gonna assume you got more!
As “low” as 1.1T
I guess thats priming in effect? My guess is original target was 1T, so they primed public with 2T…
I don’t think they’re that clever, I think they missed the wave.
If they are 80 billion in the hole shouldn’t the valuation be negative 80 billion?
On one hand you need to consider future growth so the value is high because growth is high.
On the other hand the path to profitability is going to be brutal as they need to compete with Chinese models which are often on par or sometimes better (kling v suno) than the yank models. Often the Chinese models are open source too so that helps consumers, competitors and self hosters.
On the other other hand the us government could just outlaw competition in the us market and create a regional monopoly/ oligopoly for whichever companies it wants.
On the other other other hand (I am an octopus, please don’t turn me into calamari, I have a family and friends) early movers in new industries are rarely the ones who make it big. If you invested in MySpace or AOL having seen a vision from the future where social media took over the internet you would be both correct and broke.
TLDR: traditional financial modeling has been thrown out the window years ago for tech companies. SpaceX is basically guaranteed to lose money for IPO buyers if you account for the time value of money. https://futurism.com/space/math-spacex-ipo-virtually-impossible
If they stopped now yeah, but those are rookie numbers. They’re gonna evaporate way more money than that before they finally crash and burn.
No, you have to consider future valuation. They just need to run a loss for as long as it takes to eliminate their competition (humans maintaining independent thought and learning capability) at which point they can extract whatever price they want.
All true! But they’ll still need customers willing to pay that price, and that’s not lookin’ so good at the moment.
Only if you think they are going to stop all operations right this second and give away all their assets.
However, if you think they are going to make enough money to pay off the debt (or at least make it seem like they can) then their valuation is proportionate to what happens if things go well VS what happens if things go poorly.
It’s not cratering, the value is still a positive number. Call me when the IPO is valued at something with a minus sign before.
People should get paid to take part of this IPO, not the other way.
The stock was rated as junk also.
Some investors are now weighing bids that would value Anthropic as low as $1.1 trillion.Some deluded morons who want to hold the bag whilst paying out the con artists who have pumped this bullshit technology with circular financing value Anthropic at, my life savings
oh noooes we arent going to make the fake number we set! quick, nobody tell them how completely fucking irrelevant it is!
For anyone in the market and worried about things like this, what do you think of SPXT? The expense ratio is terrible but it tracks S&P without the IT sector included, which should insulate it from the circular financing arrangements that helped balloon valuations like this.
For reference, SPX composition is normally 30-40% IT sector (because of rules driving which stock and how much of it gets included), and many of those companies are involved in these AI investments.
People cashing out at the top of the bubble are going to put that money somewhere.
Likewise people have been selling regular stocks to cash in on the insane AI tech growth. So regular stocks are likely oversold.
I wonder about how other sectors are affected by this hype that are in the top 500.
I would wonder if a value stock index would be a better idea. Or international.
Me too. Banking/finance is the one I’m most worried about. Value stocks and international stocks are both valid for an overall portfolio strategy, but they don’t fill the same large cap criteria that the SPX covers.
Even total market funds are heavily invested into AI, so it requires breaking investments out into the composition you’re after, sans AI.
