What I’ve heard is Russia wants access to the black sea since its crucial to their power projection. Russia had its puppet running Ukraine until 2014 so they were ok with Ukraine’s sovereignty but the revolution leading to his overthrow opened the door for installation of a Western puppet and Russia responded to that by annexing Crimea and eventually war. Zelensky has recently said Ukraine will be letting go of its NATO membership aspirations which should help with achieving peace, especially since leadership in both Russia and the West seem accepting of a war of attrition with Ukraine stuck in the middle.
Putin’s strategy:
He’s betting that Russia’s authoritarian system can endure high casualties and economic hardship longer than Western democracies can maintain political support for Ukraine. He is waiting for political fatigue to flip elections in the U.S. and Europe.
A state of perpetual war allows the Kremlin to frame all domestic dissent as treason, effectively cleansing the Russian political landscape of pro-Western or liberal elements.
West’s strategy
By providing aid incrementally rather than all at once, NATO avoids red lines that might trigger a nuclear escalation or a direct Russia-NATO war. The goal is to weaken Russia slowly enough that the Kremlin doesn’t feel backed into a corner where they resort to extreme options.
The war acts as good justification for Western nations to revitalize their neglected defense sectors. This long-term ramp-up in production is seen as necessary to prepare for other future conflicts.
There is a quiet fear in some Western capitals that a total, rapid Russian defeat could lead to the collapse of the Russian state, leaving thousands of nuclear warheads in the hands of unknown warlords. A controlled attrition is seen by some as more predictable.
Yeah, the last point is especially interesting. Some reports I’ve read suggest that Putin is a relative moderate in Russian politics, and there are some figures that would make him look tame without Putin “keeping them in line,” so to speak.
What I’ve heard is Russia wants access to the black sea since its crucial to their power projection. Russia had its puppet running Ukraine until 2014 so they were ok with Ukraine’s sovereignty but the revolution leading to his overthrow opened the door for installation of a Western puppet and Russia responded to that by annexing Crimea and eventually war. Zelensky has recently said Ukraine will be letting go of its NATO membership aspirations which should help with achieving peace, especially since leadership in both Russia and the West seem accepting of a war of attrition with Ukraine stuck in the middle.
Putin’s strategy:
He’s betting that Russia’s authoritarian system can endure high casualties and economic hardship longer than Western democracies can maintain political support for Ukraine. He is waiting for political fatigue to flip elections in the U.S. and Europe.
A state of perpetual war allows the Kremlin to frame all domestic dissent as treason, effectively cleansing the Russian political landscape of pro-Western or liberal elements.
West’s strategy
By providing aid incrementally rather than all at once, NATO avoids red lines that might trigger a nuclear escalation or a direct Russia-NATO war. The goal is to weaken Russia slowly enough that the Kremlin doesn’t feel backed into a corner where they resort to extreme options.
The war acts as good justification for Western nations to revitalize their neglected defense sectors. This long-term ramp-up in production is seen as necessary to prepare for other future conflicts.
There is a quiet fear in some Western capitals that a total, rapid Russian defeat could lead to the collapse of the Russian state, leaving thousands of nuclear warheads in the hands of unknown warlords. A controlled attrition is seen by some as more predictable.
Yeah, the last point is especially interesting. Some reports I’ve read suggest that Putin is a relative moderate in Russian politics, and there are some figures that would make him look tame without Putin “keeping them in line,” so to speak.