This amazes me every time I hear it.

Russian Strategist: “Comrades, NATO has surrounded our homeland with military bases. They are aggressive, needlessly paranoid, using the absurd notion of our aggression as justification. We must not encourage this aggressive expansion. What shall our strategy be?”

Subordinate 1: “Bolster our defenses in kind?”

Subordinate 2: “Seed our economy!”

Subordinate 3: “Create ties with other nations peacefully, to show them a better way than Western aggression, manipulation and coercion.”

Subordinate 4: “Unite with our allies and resist the corrupt west.”

Subordinate 5: Taps chin. “…What if we expend vast resources and hundreds of thousands of young men ‘liberating’ our tiny neighbor, as they aren’t yet in NATO? To, uh…… discourage NATO from expanding?”

The room looks to the young advisor, in dead silence.

Strategist: “Brilliant! Genius! That will certainly discourage the growth of NATO.”

What I’ve heard is Russia wants access to the black sea since its crucial to their power projection. Russia had its puppet running Ukraine until 2014 so they were ok with Ukraine’s sovereignty but the revolution leading to his overthrow opened the door for installation of a Western puppet and Russia responded to that by annexing Crimea and eventually war. Zelensky has recently said Ukraine will be letting go of its NATO membership aspirations which should help with achieving peace, especially since leadership in both Russia and the West seem accepting of a war of attrition with Ukraine stuck in the middle.

Putin’s strategy:

He’s betting that Russia’s authoritarian system can endure high casualties and economic hardship longer than Western democracies can maintain political support for Ukraine. He is waiting for political fatigue to flip elections in the U.S. and Europe.

A state of perpetual war allows the Kremlin to frame all domestic dissent as treason, effectively cleansing the Russian political landscape of pro-Western or liberal elements.

West’s strategy

By providing aid incrementally rather than all at once, NATO avoids red lines that might trigger a nuclear escalation or a direct Russia-NATO war. The goal is to weaken Russia slowly enough that the Kremlin doesn’t feel backed into a corner where they resort to extreme options.

The war acts as good justification for Western nations to revitalize their neglected defense sectors. This long-term ramp-up in production is seen as necessary to prepare for other future conflicts.

There is a quiet fear in some Western capitals that a total, rapid Russian defeat could lead to the collapse of the Russian state, leaving thousands of nuclear warheads in the hands of unknown warlords. A controlled attrition is seen by some as more predictable.

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