I guess the most fundamental 2 things is climate change, and the societal upheaval likely to result from certain modern technologies.
By climate change, I include patterns in economies, food security, water, migration, wars over resources, population/demographics, public health… that have already started but clearly will intensify.
For technology, I’ve heard that after the widespread use of the printing press, or the industrial revolution, there were big turbulent changes in society that lasted a century. Some people reckon the modern internet/social media was another such disruptor, and I do agree you can trace a lot of “post-truth”, loss of trust in institutions, etc, back to that. AI could make this worse too.
Then, most traditionally rich countries are facing demographic trouble and national debt.
It’s not clear how it’ll all shake out or when, but it’s difficult to see many players being able to afford regular supply missions to Mars in the next phase… lifetimes of people currently alive… we’re likely to see less progress than we’re used to.
We are going with both legs into ww3 and there is a chance that it will take us (as in humanity) into a mess for a decade or two, but rich nations wouldn’t desintegrate nor would they collapse due to climate change.
It depends on what kind of a martian colony we are going to get (probably we won’t get any) if it’s a vanity project of crazy billionaire it’s one thing, another thing if there is an actual need for such a colony.
Love your optimism about rich nations not disintegrating. The way I see climate change happening, there’s soon major changes in weather/ rainfall. Also some ecological collapse (eg bees, other pollinators, ocean acidification), with knock on effects to agriculture. Even problems in other parts of the world create pressure for resources, wars, increased migration…
Too much to detail, but many things that come to a breaking point in the next decades.
I’d love to hear why you think this seems unlikely. Look at the end of the roman empire. Or any empire. Things don’t stay the same just because.
Self-sufficient one? Probably not, but why wouldn’t they survive for long?
The Native Martians, obviously.
I guess the most fundamental 2 things is climate change, and the societal upheaval likely to result from certain modern technologies.
By climate change, I include patterns in economies, food security, water, migration, wars over resources, population/demographics, public health… that have already started but clearly will intensify.
For technology, I’ve heard that after the widespread use of the printing press, or the industrial revolution, there were big turbulent changes in society that lasted a century. Some people reckon the modern internet/social media was another such disruptor, and I do agree you can trace a lot of “post-truth”, loss of trust in institutions, etc, back to that. AI could make this worse too.
Then, most traditionally rich countries are facing demographic trouble and national debt.
It’s not clear how it’ll all shake out or when, but it’s difficult to see many players being able to afford regular supply missions to Mars in the next phase… lifetimes of people currently alive… we’re likely to see less progress than we’re used to.
We are going with both legs into ww3 and there is a chance that it will take us (as in humanity) into a mess for a decade or two, but rich nations wouldn’t desintegrate nor would they collapse due to climate change.
It depends on what kind of a martian colony we are going to get (probably we won’t get any) if it’s a vanity project of crazy billionaire it’s one thing, another thing if there is an actual need for such a colony.
Ok.
Love your optimism about rich nations not disintegrating. The way I see climate change happening, there’s soon major changes in weather/ rainfall. Also some ecological collapse (eg bees, other pollinators, ocean acidification), with knock on effects to agriculture. Even problems in other parts of the world create pressure for resources, wars, increased migration… Too much to detail, but many things that come to a breaking point in the next decades.
I’d love to hear why you think this seems unlikely. Look at the end of the roman empire. Or any empire. Things don’t stay the same just because.